Capital Allocation 🤝 Market Intelligence

A new primitive for programmable capital allocation. Rules-based, on-chain, and powered by prediction markets.

Accurate Decisions

CFMs outperform committees by using markets
to predict which allocations deliver the greatest impact.

Incentive Alignment

Traders are rewarded for decision quality,
not just for maximizing their fees

Autonomous Capital

On-chain Funds that continuously allocate capital to the highest-ROI proposals, wherever markets see growth.

How it Works

Forecast Impact.

Fund the Future.

Forecast Impact.

Fund the Future.

Conditional Funding Markets unlock a new way to allocate capital—guided by predictions and data, not opinions. Traders forecast which projects, assets, or strategies will move the needle, and funds flow to those with the strongest signals.

Define the KPI

“What does success look like?” — TVL, swap volume, active wallets, fee revenue.

Define the KPI

“What does success look like?” — TVL, swap volume, active wallets, fee revenue.

Define the KPI

“What does success look like?” — TVL, swap volume, active wallets, fee revenue.

Supply funds

Deposit the funds you want to allocate; Applicants submit proposals.

Supply funds

Deposit the funds you want to allocate; Applicants submit proposals.

Supply funds

Deposit the funds you want to allocate; Applicants submit proposals.

Run markets

Traders price each proposal’s ROI. Funds are routed according to the highest forecast KPI lift.

Run markets

Traders price each proposal’s ROI. Funds are routed according to the highest forecast KPI lift.

Run markets

Traders price each proposal’s ROI. Funds are routed according to the highest forecast KPI lift.

Benefits

Greater ROI,

Smarter Capital

Greater ROI,

Smarter Capital

Paid truth-seeking

Traders earn only when their forecasts

are right, so manipulation is costly.

Open alpha hunt

Anyone, builder, delegate, contributor, or analyst can

trade, pushing prices toward accuracy.

Rules-based Allocation

Funds flow according to immutable, on-chain rules.

No politics or middlemen.

Use Cases

Managers Need Not Apply.

Managers Need Not Apply.

DAOs, foundations, protocols, and investors can leverage CFMs to ensure no dollar is ever spent unless it directly targets their goals.

Ecosystem Grants

Steer grants toward dev tools or apps forecast to lift network metrics.

Ecosystem Grants

Steer grants toward dev tools or apps forecast to lift network metrics.

Ecosystem Grants

Steer grants toward dev tools or apps forecast to lift network metrics.

Treasury Management

Reallocate treasury holdings based on market forecasts.

Treasury Management

Reallocate treasury holdings based on market forecasts.

Treasury Management

Reallocate treasury holdings based on market forecasts.

Growth & Incentive Campaigns

Allocate points or tokens to pools, strategies, or rebates to grow users, usage, or revenue.

Growth & Incentive Campaigns

Allocate points or tokens to pools, strategies, or rebates to grow users, usage, or revenue.

Growth & Incentive Campaigns

Allocate points or tokens to pools, strategies, or rebates to grow users, usage, or revenue.

Thematic Funds

Spin up pools for group investments in projects, cross-network initiatives, or shared infra.

Thematic Funds

Spin up pools for group investments in projects, cross-network initiatives, or shared infra.

Thematic Funds

Spin up pools for group investments in projects, cross-network initiatives, or shared infra.

Case Studies

CFMs in the Real-World

CFMs in the Real-World

See how teams like Optimism Foundation and Uniswap Foundation use Conditional Funding Markets to drive Ecosystem Growth.

Optimism

Superchain TVL lift

+$30M TVL increase during the 2025 Q1 pilot

Optimism

Superchain TVL lift

+$30M TVL increase during the 2025 Q1 pilot

Optimism

Superchain TVL lift

+$30M TVL increase during the 2025 Q1 pilot

uniswap foundation

Grow lending TVL on Unichain

Allocating $1M in Grants to Lending Protocols on Unichain

uniswap foundation

Grow lending TVL on Unichain

Allocating $1M in Grants to Lending Protocols on Unichain

uniswap foundation

Grow lending TVL on Unichain

Allocating $1M in Grants to Lending Protocols on Unichain

FAQ

Frequently Asked Questions

Frequently Asked Questions

Who sets the KPI oracle?

Who sets the KPI oracle?

Who sets the KPI oracle?

Can whales manipulate the market?

Can whales manipulate the market?

Can whales manipulate the market?

What happens if the KPI doesn’t improve after funding?

What happens if the KPI doesn’t improve after funding?

What happens if the KPI doesn’t improve after funding?

Can prediction markets really outperform grant managers and committees?

Can prediction markets really outperform grant managers and committees?

Can prediction markets really outperform grant managers and committees?

Butter

Fund the Future.

Butter

Fund the Future.

Butter

Fund the Future.